The times they are a changing

"Robert J. Brown" (rj@ELI.WARIAT.ORG)
Mon, 5 Feb 1996 14:04:44 -0600


Reuters New Media
Sunday Febuary 4 5:57 PM EST

El Nino Linked to Deadly Weather

   MIAMI (Reuter) - Fierce winter weather in North America following last
   season's near-record number of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes may be
   evidence of a basic change in global weather patterns, climate experts
   said Sunday.                                                          

   Although final tallies have yet to be made, 1995 appears to have
   surpassed 1990 as the warmest U.S. year on record. Some reserachers
   believe the world is likely to get hotter in the coming century by as
   much as three degrees (two degrees C)
     
   The most recent ``El Nino,'' the name given to large masses of warm  
   water off Equador and northern Peru, was the longest on record,      
   weather experts told Reuters.                                     

   They said the phenomenon, believed to contribute to violent storms in
   the eastern Pacific, hurricanes in the Atlantic, and drought as far
   away as east Africa, may become even more frequent and last longer.
   
   But how these changes will manifest themselves in the daily weather
   forecast is open to speculation, experts said.

   ``We do find evidence in the last decade or so that the climate has
   become more extreme,'' said Tom Karl, senior scientist at the National
   Climatic Data Center.                                                 

   In addition to the bitter cold gripping the northern United States and
   record snowfalls in the January blizzard, the past few years have seen
   dramatic droughts in Africa and flooding in the U.S. Midwest and other
   areas.

   The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season, with 19 named storms, was the
   second most active in recorded history.                            
    
   The most obvious climatic change is global warming, which researchers
   say is partly due to the release of ``greenhouse'' gases into the
   atmosphere, warming the planet. Other changes are less noticeable but
   no less dramatic, scientists say.
     
   Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National
   Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, said the latest
   El Nino, from 1990-95, was the longest in the past century.    

!! ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL MODELS, SUCH AN EVENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ONLY !!
!! ONCE EVERY 2,000 YEARS.                                                !!

   Some extreme climatic conditions have been linked to El Nino, NAMED
   ``THE LITTLE BOY'' AFTER CHRIST'S BIRTH because its effects are most 
   intensely felt around Christmas.     
     
   Trenberth said flood and drought around the world have been connected
   to the event, including weaker monsoons in southeast Asia, drought in
   Africa and northern South America and extremely wet weather on the
   west coast of South America.

   ``The likely explanation is that the underlying conditions have    
   changed. In other words, THE CLIMATE HAS CHANGED,'' said Trenberth.

----------------

Reuters New Media
Monday Febuary 5 9:02 AM EST

Tremors Jolt Quake-Ravaged Town

   BEIJING (Reuter) - Hundreds of aftershocks on Monday jolted terrified
   survivors of China's deadliest earthquake in eight years as they
   huddled in freezing temperatures in the streets of southwestern    
   Lijiang, officials said.

   Yunnan provincial officials raced to airlift quilts, tents and
   medicine to hundreds of thousands of people left homeless by
   Saturday's tremor and to bury the bodies of victims and dead animals
   to prevent the spread of disease, officials said.
     
   ``This was the worst earthquake we have suffered,'' one Lijiang
   disaster coordination official said by telephone.                  

   An aftershock measuring 6.0 on the Richter scale rocked the remote,
   mountainous region of Lijiang, on Monday just 30 hours after the main
   tremor with a magnitude of 7.0 hit the district on Saturday, killing
   about 250 people and injuring 15,000, officials said.
   
   At mid-morning, a tremor of force 4.8 jolted the scenic district,
   2,000 km (1,300 miles) south of Beijing. The region is renowned for
   the beauty of its scenery, with ancient ethnic Naxi villages nestled
   at the foot of snow-capped Jade Dragon Snow Mountain.

   ``It was terrifying,'' a local official said by telephone. ``The earth
   just shakes and shakes. When will it stop?''
     
   More than 312 aftershocks have been recorded, causing no new
   casualties but damaging buildings already shaken or shattered by      
   Saturday's tremor, which one official described as Lijiang's deadliest
   since 1474. More aftershocks were expected.        

   More than 186,000 homes have collapsed, leaving hundreds of thousands
   of people homeless. Those whose homes are intact are too frightened to
   return to them, officials said.              

   ``It doesn't matter whether people still have homes or they don't,''
   the official said. ``Everyone is too scared to go inside. Everyone is
   living in the streets.''

   Yunnan governor He Zhiqiang has issued 10 directives to rescue       
   workers, with the top priorities being burial of bodies, caring for
   the injured, preventing the spread of disease and ``pots to cook and
   rice in the pots'' for the homeless, officials said.

----------------

   Reuters New Media                               
   Monday Febuary 5 7:29 AM EST                 

Report: US Tries to Calm Asian Tension

   WASHINGTON (Reuter) - U.S. policymakers have decided to warn China,
   which apparently plans military exercises near Taiwan as the island's
   presidential elections near, that it should cool the tensions with  
   Taiwan, the Washington Post reported in its Monday editions.

   ``We plan to tell Beijing that we don't think some of their recent
   actions are helpful,'' a U.S official told the newspaper. The identity
   of the official was not disclosed.
     
   A White House spokesman declined comment on the report.
     
   A number of recent published reports, including the story in the   
   Washington Post, said China planned massive military exercises near
   Taiwan before it holds presidential elections on March 23. The
   newspaper said roughly 40 naval vessels and 100 aircraft would
   simulate amphibious landings.                                      

   U.S. State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said last week that the
   United States saw ``no imminent threat'' to Taiwan but was
   ``monitoring the situation very closely.''

   The primary U.S. goal, according to a senior U.S. State Department
   official quoted in the Washington Post ``is to get this Taiwan thing
   calmed down.''                                                        

   The senior official, who was not named, said policymakers decided the
   United States should warn China that ``heightened tensions could lead
   to miscalculation and accident.''                                     
     
   China's upcoming military exercise, because of its size, was
   destabilizing in the eyes of U.S. policymakers, the newspaper said.
     
   Because of the situation, U.S. intelligence-gathering in the region
   has been bolstered and the Clinton administration has begun a fresh
   look at how it might respond to an attack on Taiwan, the Post said.

   Friction over Taiwan could mean added tensions in U.S.-China ties.
   Washington and Beijing have disagreed over numerous trade issues and
   China's human-rights record.

   The U.S. message would begin to be expressed this week during meetings
   in Washington of Li Zhaoxing, a deputy foreign minister, and senior 
   U.S. officials, the Washington Post said. Li would be warned that
   Beijing's failure to halt widespread pirating of U.S. trademarked
   goods could bring costly sanctions.                               

   Military exercises by China apparently were aimed at underming support
   for President Lee Teng-hui and dissauding him from trying to boost the
   island's international image.
     
   Since 1949, China has viewed Taiwan as a renegade province.        

----------------

Wars, earthquakes, famine...  All prerequisites.  When is the next
lunar eclipse, anybody know?  "The moon shall be turned to blood".


Oh yes, one more little titbit:

   Clinton and his daughter Chelsea ventured out into the snow and cold
   of Washington to attend services at Foundry United Methodist Church.

Note the absence of the first "lady".

-- 
-----------  "...  And the men went up and viewed Ai."  [Jos 7:2]  -----------
Robert Jay Brown III  rj@eli.wariat.org  http://eli.wariat.org  1 847 705-0370
Elijah Laboratories Inc;  759 Independence Drive;  Suite 5;  Palatine IL 60074
-----  M o d e l i n g   t h e   M e t h o d s   o f   t h e   M i n d  ------