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COVID-19 Corona Virus Daily New Cases By State


These graphs are generated from data at Microsoft which is updated daily. That file counts the number of cases each day that are confirmed by a positive test result, but these graphs show the difference between 2 consecutive days, so they show the number of new cases associated with each day.

By watching when the number of new cases reaches a maximum, and then tapers off, one can get an idea of how the pandemic is progressing in either the US as a whole (first graph), or in each of the states. Because the counts are updated as they are reported each day, there is some bumpiness in the data caused by late reporting, correction to older days, etc.

Most other such graphs show the number of deaths, which only serves to delay the appearance of the peak by several weeks. The spread of the infection is best viewed by watching the appearance of new cases, as the peak shows up earlier.

As can be seen by comparing the shapes of the different states' graphs, some areas of the country are past thier peak, while other areas have yet to reach it. Looking at the maximum number of cases in a day for each state is not as enlightening as looking at the total number of active cases per capita for each state would be, as that latter representaion would show the probability of being exposed in any state. Since the disease spread is really more localized than the state level can show, it is planned to generate a third level of graphs that shows the breakdown by each county within a given state, but these graphs are reserved for a project in the future.

The data used to generate these graphs ties the number of cases to the day those cases were reported by the state that they are in. What is really needed is to tie each case to the date the swab or other tissue sample was taken. There are random delays between taking the tissue sample and the lab conducting the test, and more delays after the lab reports the test to the doctors, and more delays after the doctors report to the state, and more delays after the state reports to the database. If each test was reported together with the date the tissue sample was taken, we would still have delays in seeing the results, but at least the results would be accurately tied to the time the sample was taken. Perhaps an even better date to tie the tests to would be the date that symptoms first began to appear in the patient.

For a different way to look at it, look at this.

Click on a graph to detach it into a separate movable and resizable window.

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Last modified: Tue Apr 14 14:23:39 EDT 2020